Things on the lookout as Jokowi exits
What happens in the uncertain time of a presidential transition
On October 20, president-elect Prabowo Subianto will officially take office as Jokowi finishes his 10-year presidency. We are now in an uncertain time: a transition from the old administrations to the new.
A transition is a pivotal moment for any democratic nation, as the reins of power shift from one administration to the next. When one leader exits and another takes charge, a country requires a delicate balance between stability and change. Both the outgoing and incoming governments need to ensure a smooth handover behind the scenes.
As we were writing this, we pondered about what to look out for during this period. Why aren’t we more familiar with this process? And then we got reminded of this rather astonishing fact: this would only be Indonesia’s second time experiencing a transition that is a result of a direct presidential election. Not only that, as President Jokowi governed for two terms, it’s been 10 years since we last had it.
In this first edition of The Reformist, we will take a deeper look on what happens during a transition between outgoing and incoming administrations. This article will cover:
What our constitution says about administrations transition
Prabowo’s transition team and transitional budgets
The continuity of civic services
What’s next for Indonesia’s foreign policy direction
What to look out for in the legislative and executive branches.
Why is this interesting - and why is it important to be aware of what happens during the transition period? Well, not only does the transition bring in a new president and vice president, it is also a time for the appointment of ministers and other political appointees of the executive branch.
Another notable thing is that Indonesia is sort of an outlier – our transition period is technically 179 days long – between the National Election Commission’s (KPU) announcement on April 24 and the presidential inauguration on October 20. If we compare it to the British government, for example, they only have had a 2-7 days transition period in the last 3 elections.
During this period, we can see the incoming president’s team starting to engage in political interventions. On the other hand, the incumbent may use their ‘lame-duck’ period as an opportunity to maximise personal or group benefits – without fear of consequences knowing they will no longer be in office when their actions take effect.
1. What does the constitution say?
The last time Indonesia had a transfer of power between two presidents who are both results of a direct presidential election, it was 2014 — between Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) and Joko Widodo. It was also the first, as the country only adopted direct presidential elections in 2009 when SBY became the first president ever to be elected directly by the people.
As a result, much of the transition process relies on unwritten traditions and norms; unlike other democratic nations, like the US, which have laws to govern the transition: the Presidential Transition Act of 1963.
Our constitution only clarifies the maximum number of terms and the inauguration procedure of taking the oath. Meanwhile, the KPU Regulation (PKPU) 3/2022 mandated that the president and vice-president elect should be inaugurated on October 20, 2024.
Why October 20? It has been the precedent since the late President Gus Dur’s inauguration, and would likely continue years forward.
Regime continued?
Unlike the transition from SBY to Jokowi, the upcoming handover stands out.
Since the beginning of the election process, it was clear that Jokowi favoured the Prabowo-Gibran ticket to win this election; not to mention that Gibran Rakabuming, the vice president-elect, is Jokowi’s eldest son (this would need its own long article to elaborate).
As it seems like they are in the same ‘camp’, the transition between the incumbent and the incoming administration is expected to be rather smooth.
But, hypothetically, what would happen if the incoming president does not have the good grace of the outgoing one? This is where norms fall short and a law is perhaps required.
Dr. Fahri Bachmid, an expert in Constitutional and State Administrative Law underscored the need for a Presidential Transition Law that aims to ensure a smooth and peaceful transfer of power down to its technical aspects, such as providing transition services for the president through the State Secretariat.
2. Transition Team and Budget
Ahead of the inauguration, Prabowo-Gibran Transition Task Force has started to work on transforming their major campaign promises into a cohesive policy agenda. This involves identifying priority issues the new administration will tackle in its early days.
The task force, composed of senior members from Gerindra, aims to streamline the transition process across government ministries and agencies. Led by Sufmi Dasco Ahmad and Ahmad Muzani, they met with Finance Minister Sri Mulyani to discuss synchronising programs ahead of Prabowo Subianto's presidential inauguration in October 2024.
The goal is to ensure that key campaign promises can be implemented immediately after the new administration takes office.
Moreover, Jokowi has instructed that the 2025 State Budget (RAPBN) should accommodate the programs of the newly elected administration. Sri Mulyani confirmed that the budget discussions between the current government and the Prabowo-Gibran transition team were progressing well, focusing on macroeconomic factors.
The 2025 budget will include Prabowo’s priority programs, such as the free nutritious meals program, with a projected budget of IDR 71 trillion. However, the specifics of these initiatives are still being finalised by the president-elect’s team.
3. The vital role of civil servants
Presidents come and go, so do ministers and heads of agencies, but civil servants remain – that’s why they are the key element in ensuring a stable governance and a continued civic service and bureaucracy.
Article 9 of the 2014 Civil Service Law (UU ASN) says that civil servants are required to maintain their neutrality by being free from the influence and intervention of any groups or political parties.
Why is a professional, neutral civil service important in maintaining effective governance amidst political transitions?
While ministers or heads of agencies are appointed from political backgrounds with little expertise in the fields they oversee, civil servants play an increasingly vital role in maintaining the functionality and efficiency of government operations.
As the backbone of public administration, civil servants possess the institutional knowledge, technical skills, and policy expertise necessary to ensure continuity and informed decision-making.
Their professional experience allows them to guide and advise political appointees, helping them navigate complex issues and implement effective policies.
In such situations, civil servants act as stabilisers, ensuring that government functions smoothly while political leaders familiarise themselves with their roles.
4. Foreign Policy
Another crucial aspect to look out for in a presidential transition is foreign policy. What is Indonesia’s next direction in foreign policy under the new president?
Prabowo has embarked on several trips abroad and met with foreign leaders. Although the visits were often narrated in his capacity as the current Defence Minister, the slew of heads of states he met in the absence of Jokowi speaks to the visits’ capacity as an introduction tour before he assumes presidency.
Since the KPU announcement, Prabowo has visited 10 countries, positioning himself before assuming the presidency and highlighting defence cooperation while discussing broader geopolitical issues.
His foreign trips, including to China, France, and Turkey, hint at a shift in Indonesia's foreign policy, with Prabowo likely prioritising defence and international diplomacy—areas where he diverges from outgoing President Jokowi’s economic focus.
Prabowo has already built a strong rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin during a visit to Moscow, signalling closer ties between Indonesia and Russia. Though Prabowo has yet to visit the U.S., this omission is likely tied to timing around the upcoming American presidential election.
As Prabowo steps into his role, the world watches to see how his foreign policy will balance the growing tensions between China, Russia, and the U.S., as Indonesia seeks to maintain its “active and independent” foreign policy strategy in global geopolitics.
5. On the lookout: The Parliament
The parliament is currently in the ‘lame-duck period’ – where election results are announced and the new administration term is awaiting inauguration.
The issue of a lame-duck period is notorious in Indonesia’s political history for being a time for a rushed last-minute, behind-the-scenes passing of controversial law.
Lame-duck period may motivate the incumbent, knowing they already secure the office for another term, to use this transitional period to issue policies that cater to certain political interests, which may not align with the will of the people.
For example, the House of Representatives (DPR) passed the revision of Law on Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK Law) on September 17, 2019, just before the end of President Joko Widodo’s first term and the new DPR was sworn in. It was discussed in only 12 working days, making it the fastest-reviewed bill in Indonesia's history.
This law faced significant criticism and public opposition because it was perceived as diminishing public input.
6. On the lookout: The Executives
According to article 16 of the Law on State Ministries (Law 39/2008), the president must announce his cabinet structure no later than 14 working days after he takes the oath. If the president wishes to alter the structure of ministries, or dissolve them, this must be done with the consideration of the DPR before this deadline.
However, there are three ministries that cannot be changed or dissolved by the President according to this law: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Home Affairs, and the Ministry of Defense. The dissolution of ministries handling religious, legal, financial, and security matters requires the approval of the DPR.
President-elect Prabowo has signalled his plans to expand the cabinet, potentially increasing the number of ministries to 41 from the current 34. Recently, it was reported that the revision to the State Ministries Law (Law 39/2008) will be brought to the plenary session to be passed; this will allow the new administration to add the number of ministers as the president sees fit.
Experts have noted that this move will create a more complicated bureaucracy; in result increases the risk of inefficiency and corruption, and makes Indonesia less appealing for foreign investment.
Economists, such as Bhima Yudhistira from CELIOS, warn that more ministries could potentially complicate business regulations and slow down processes to, for example, obtaining business permits. The new ministries would also add pressure on the government's budget, with higher operational costs for salaries and benefits of new ministers and their staff.
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What a fun read. Nicely summed up points.